Lombard Odier Group

What will drive oil prices from here? Markets have quickly shifted from fears of shortages during the Middle East conflict to concerns of oversupply. Yet the next move in oil prices may depend less on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz than on Chinese demand. We believe rebuilding strategic oil reserves should help support prices as supply returns, while the conflict has also exposed more elastic oil demand, a weaker OPEC, and faster diversification of global energy supplies. Against this backdrop, we continue to see only selective opportunities in the energy sector. Read more from our Equity Research Analyst Robin Haworth here. #economicoutlooks #investmentinsights #rethinkeverything #lombardodier

What does the post‑Iran conflict environment mean for investors? Despite an energy shock and persistent geopolitical tensions, the global economy remains resilient. A solid US job market gives the Federal Reserve room to stay focused on inflation, while a robust technology cycle in Asia is helping to cushion the impacts. Market conditions remain favourable for risk assets. We expect equity gains to broaden beyond the tech sector, with emerging markets standing out, while fixed income is also offering renewed opportunities. The risks, including policy and geopolitical tensions, certainly haven’t disappeared, but the overall backdrop remains constructive, supporting our pro‑risk stance into the second half of the year. To learn more about how we invest our portfolios, watch our new video with Samy Chaar, PhD, Chief Economist and CIO Switzerland, and Luca Bindelli, Head of Investment Strategy. #economicoutlooks #investmentinsights #rethinkeverything #lombardodier

Who does the US-Iran agreement favour? While many questions remain unresolved, the agreement confirms our base scenario of conflict de-escalation. The terms and sequencing appear highly favourable to Iran, China emerges somewhat stronger, and Gulf states are likely to invest more in defence, critical energy infrastructure, and alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz. We retain our oil price forecast and our view of resilient global growth, with limited impact on core inflation across developed economies. Read the full analysis from Macro Strategist Filippo Pallotti here. #economicoutlooks #investmentinsights #rethinkeverything #lombardodier

Do blockbuster IPOs signal the peak of an equity bull market? While high-profile issuance has accelerated in 2026, the cycle looks more consistent with historical averages after several subdued years, rather than late-stage exuberance. Crucially, new listings are likely to be broadly offset by share buybacks, limiting any sustained increase in equity supply. At the same time, financial conditions remain supportive as we expect the Fed to hold rates, with easing oil prices helping to anchor inflation expectations. Against this backdrop of resilient earnings and a steady macro environment, we maintain our preference for emerging market equities, while taking a more neutral stance on technology after its strong performance. #economicoutlooks #investmentinsights #rethinkeverything #lombardodier

What does a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East mean for investors? We assess the implications of the US-Iran agreement, and the unresolved questions. A gradual recovery of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – we estimate oil flows will return to half of pre-conflict levels in the coming weeks – should help avoid damaging shortages and keep the economic impact manageable. Our base case remains de-escalation, with oil prices averaging USD 90/barrel over the six months from the start of the conflict and USD 78 over 12 months. We keep a moderate pro-risk stance in portfolios, favouring emerging market assets, supported by resilient earnings growth and a preference for emerging market assets. #economicoutlooks #investmentinsights #rethinkeverything #lombardodier

A wave of mega-cap AI IPOs is set to reshape not only single-stock portfolios, but passive index allocations too. As index providers consider rule changes to include these listings faster, exposure to already dominant tech and AI names may rise further. History offers a note of caution. While IPOs often generate strong first-day returns, they have tended to underperform over longer horizons, with higher volatility. This time, the difference is scale: some of the largest companies ever to list, often with limited free float. As passive flows increasingly drive demand, diversification cannot be assumed. #economicoutlooks #investmentinsights #rethinkeverything #lombardodier

On 14 June, voters decide on an initiative to cap the population at 10 million. From a position of macroeconomic strength, this referendum appears less about near-term stress and more about the long-term foundations of growth. If approved, we would expect muted immediate market effects, given the long implementation horizons. However, by calling into question labour market openness and EU relations, the initiative could introduce longer-term risks to potential growth and competitiveness. For investors, global Swiss multinationals are likely to remain relatively insulated, while domestically focussed equities may face a higher risk premium over time. The Swiss franc’s haven fundamentals remain supportive. We examine the economic transmission channels and investment implications. #economicoutlooks #investmentinsights #rethinkeverything #lombardodier

How might investors position for the post-Middle East conflict? Equity markets have remained resilient this year, supported by strong earnings momentum and sustained investment in technology and artificial intelligence. Our base case is that higher sovereign yields may create short term valuation pressure, but are unlikely to derail equities as central banks are better positioned than in 2022 when they were forced to rapidly hike policy rates. Earnings growth remains the key anchor, particularly in emerging markets where valuations are more compelling and revisions stronger. In portfolios, we keep a moderate pro risk stance, expressed through emerging market equities, emerging market hard currency bonds and gold as a diversifier against geopolitical and inflation risks. #rethinkinvestment #rethinkeverything

After more than doubling over the past year, gold prices have consolidated. In our base case, this reflects short-term headwinds, including higher real yields, a stronger US dollar, and elevated energy prices, rather than a change in the medium-term case. Structural support remains intact, underpinned by resilient central bank and private investor demand, persistent fiscal uncertainty, and gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier. As these slower-moving drivers reassert themselves, we remain constructive on gold. We therefore maintain our overweight allocation and our 12-month price target of USD 5,400 per ounce. #economicoutlooks #investmentinsights #rethinkeverything #lombardodier

A bank like no other. #rethinkeverything