Stock Market Highlights Today: BSE Sensex ends over 340 points up, Nifty50 above 24,050 as oil prices dip below $80

"Rupee traded largely flat near 94.50 as both the Dollar Index and crude oil prices remained range-bound, keeping currency markets in a wait-and-watch mode. With no major domestic triggers during the session, participants refrained from taking aggressive positions ahead of the key global event.

The market's focus is now firmly on the US Federal Reserve policy decision later tonight. While interest rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, investors will closely monitor the statement and comments from the new Fed Chairman for guidance on the future rate path, inflation outlook, and economic projections. The tone of the policy communication could have a significant impact on the dollar and emerging market currencies, including the rupee.

For the near term, the rupee is expected to trade within a range of 94.00–94.85, with Fed commentary likely to provide the next directional trigger,” says Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

Nifty started the session on a positive note and extended its gains to touch an intraday high of 24108. However, profit booking at higher levels erased most of the early gains before a sharp surge towards the closing hour of the day led to Index eventually closing at 24086, up 0.40%.

On the daily chart, Nifty formed a small-bodied candle with a minor upper wick and a noticeable lower wick, indicating buying interest at lower levels. Although the index briefly moved above the previous swing high of 24090 during the session, it failed to sustain those levels and closed below the same. Having said that, the index closed above the previous two days high zone of 24000-24020, displaying resilience by holding firm at elevated levels.

On the sectoral front, Nifty Defence ended the day as the top performing sector followed by Nifty PSU Bank. On the other hand, Nifty Auto ended the day as the top sectoral loser followed by Nifty Realty. With regards to stocks, Trent & BEL ended up as top two gainers while TMPV and Cipla ended with losses.

The Midcap Index also gave a close above the previous two-days high zone of 61830–61890 on the daily chart. The index continues to trade above its key short and long-term moving averages, indicating a positive undertone.

The Smallcap Index outperformed its peers and gave a higher close on the daily chart. Furthermore, the rising ratio line in the Smallcap 100/Midcap 100 ratio chart suggests improving relative strength in the small-cap segment. This indicates that small-cap stocks are likely to continue outperforming the Midcaps in the near term.

The market breadth remained firm as the advance-decline ratio was skewed in the favour of bulls at day’s close. A total of 306 stocks out of the Nifty 500 universe ended in the green, says Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

Shares of electronics manufacturing company Dixon Technologies climbed 5% to an intraday high of Rs 12,860 on the BSE on Wednesday following reports that the government may approve the proposed Dixon-Vivo joint venture later this month. The move is expected to lower the Chinese smartphone maker's business risks in India.

According to a PTI report, the proposed partnership has received in-principle clearance from an inter-ministerial committee, with the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) expected to grant final approval after completing the necessary procedures. The agreement between the two companies was signed in December 2024, with Dixon Technologies holding a majority stake of 51% in the venture.

The proposed joint venture is intended to manufacture a range of electronic products, including smartphones. Vivo's manufacturing facility in Noida is expected to be integrated into the new entity, a development that could help reduce the company's operational exposure in the Indian market.

The plant is expected to handle a portion of Vivo's original equipment manufacturing (OEM) smartphone orders in India. In addition, the venture is likely to undertake OEM production of various electronic products for other brands as well.

Markets continue to trade rangebound post the initial positive opening. Banking stocks continue to outperform led by PSU banking counters.

Coming back to Nifty, the zone of 23940-23960 will act as a crucial support for the index while the resistance lies in the zone of 24190-24210.

On the downside, if the index slips below the level of 23940 then the next support is placed in the zone of 23800-23750.

In an event of a surge above 24210, the index can experience an extension of the rally towards 24400.

On the options front, meaningful call writing witnessed across 24100 & 24200 strikes. On the put side, 24000 has a substantial open interest, followed by 23900 strike.

Nifty's Advance Decline Ratio is at 30:19.

Speaking of Sensex levels, support is at 76,700 while resistance is at 77,500.

Crude oil prices remained under pressure, hovering near three-month lows as markets continued to price in the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.-Iran peace agreement. The deal is expected to allow Iran to immediately resume oil exports once signed, with estimates suggesting over 100 million barrels of Iranian oil stored onshore and on tankers could gradually return to global markets, improving supply availability.

However, uncertainty over the durability of theceasefire, the pace of restoring normal shipping activity through Hormuz, and Israel's reservations about the agreement has kept the markets cautious. Natural gas prices moved higher as traders increasingly priced in stronger second-half demand from both LNG exports and power generation.

LNG feedgas demand continues to rise with the ramp-up of new export facilities, which could tighten the supply-demand balance later this year. Additionally, forecasts for above-normal summer temperatures across much of the US may boost cooling demand and limit storage injections, although ample production and inventories above the five-year average continue to cap upside momentum, says Manav Modi Commodities Analyst Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Shares of IT services company Coforge climbed more than 2% to touch an intraday high of Rs 1,499 on the BSE on Wednesday after the management outlined an ambitious growth roadmap during its investor day presentation on June 16, targeting revenue of $5 billion by FY30.

The company said the target translates into a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 19% between FY26 and FY30. A significant portion of this expansion is expected to come from organic growth, which management estimates at close to 15% over the same period.

According to the company, stronger relationships with existing clients, expansion of key strategic initiatives and opportunities generated through partnerships are expected to drive organic growth. Management also highlighted artificial intelligence as a catalyst for future expansion rather than a threat, noting that AI is helping create new avenues of demand across the business.

"There are two factors that are likely to influence the market trend in the near term. One is positive; the other is negative. The positive factor is the steady and sharp decline in crude prices. Brent crude has declined steeply by around 16% in the last 5 days to about $ 79, thereby removing the major macro concern of a rising BoP deficit in India. The negative factor is the deficient monsoon which is causing concerns, particularly about food inflation. But monsoon may pick up in the coming days, as has happened in the past, and reduce anxiety on that front.

From the market perspective, another distinct positive trend is the tapering of the FII outflows. This trend is likely to continue since rupee has been steadily strengthening and can appreciate further. The sharp correction in Brent crude to $79 and expectations surrounding massive capital flows to India via the FCNR B deposit route can lead to further appreciation in the rupee, which, in turn, will further dissuade FIIs from selling. They may even turn buyers anticipating further rupee appreciation. This can impart resilience to the market,” says VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

“Following the US-Iran ceasefire deal, Brent crude oil is trading below $80 per barrel on improved optimism. The market is pricing in increased output from West Asia as well as the release of oil onboard the tankers at sea. As per the emerging details of the ceasefire deal, the US treasury will issue waivers that could allow Iran to export crude oil and other petrochemical products and lift sanctions against Iran.

Despite the positive developments, the US Dollar Index has traded in a narrow range, as markets turn attention to the newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting today. The Fed is expected to keep rates steady at 3.50% -3.75% and market will be looking out for signals of rate hike later this year. The updated dot plot (policy rate expectation of FOMC members) along with the Summary of Economic Projections will be also released today,” says HDFC Bank’s Treasury Research Desk.

"Indian equity markets are expected to open on a mildly positive note, with Gift Nifty trading at 24,015, up by 21 points. Asian markets are witnessing mixed trade after a subdued overnight session on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 ended lower amid weakness in technology stocks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued its record-setting run and and SpaceX rallied to become the fifth-most valuable U.S. company. Despite the cautious global setup, easing geopolitical concerns in West Asia and a sharp decline in crude oil prices continue to provide support to risk sentiment and may help domestic equities maintain their positive bias.

In the previous session, the Nifty 50 gained 0.6 percent and extended its rally for the third consecutive session. The index continued to trade above its key short- and medium-term moving averages, reflecting sustained buying interest. The recent rally has been supported by easing crude oil prices and improving market sentiment. The broader structure remains constructive, though the index is now approaching an important resistance zone that could determine the next directional move.

From a technical standpoint, momentum indicators remain firmly in favour of the bulls. The RSI climbed further to 59.02 and continued its upward trajectory, indicating strengthening momentum. The MACD maintained its positive crossover with rising green histogram bars, reflecting continued bullish strength. The 10-day EMA has also moved above the 20-day EMA, reinforcing the positive undertone. Immediate resistance is placed around the 24,000 level, and a decisive breakout above this hurdle could trigger a move towards 24,100 and subsequently 24,500, which corresponds to the swing highs seen in May. On the downside, 23,800 is expected to act as immediate support, followed by a stronger support zone near 23,650.

Derivatives data indicates a positive undertone. The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) rose to 1.08 from 0.99 in the previous session, suggesting higher put writing activity and improving bullish sentiment among option traders. India VIX declined sharply by 6.9 percent to 13.36, extending its downward trend for the fourth consecutive session. The sustained decline in volatility indicates increasing comfort for bulls and supports the ongoing upward momentum.

Option chain positioning highlights strong support around the 23,800 strike, where substantial put writing has emerged. On the upside, call writers remain active around the 24,000 strike, making it a crucial resistance level. A sustained move above this zone could lead to fresh short covering and accelerate bullish momentum towards higher targets.

In terms of price structure, Nifty formed a small-bodied bullish candle within the previous day's range, indicating consolidation after a sharp upmove. The index continues to maintain a higher high-higher low formation and remains above its important moving averages, suggesting that the broader trend remains positive. The current consolidation near resistance appears healthy and may serve as a base for the next leg of the uptrend if support levels continue to hold.
Bank Nifty also maintained its positive bias and closed moderately higher while forming a Doji-like candlestick pattern on the daily charts, indicating temporary indecision after a strong rally. The banking index continues to trade comfortably above all major moving averages, while the 20-day EMA is close to crossing above the 50-day EMA, a development that would further strengthen the bullish structure. The RSI advanced to 67.72, while the MACD maintained a bullish crossover with expanding green histogram bars. The overall trend remains positive, although some consolidation at higher levels cannot be ruled out.

Overall, the technical setup remains constructive with improving momentum indicators, supportive derivatives data, and declining volatility. While some consolidation near the 24,000 resistance level is possible, the broader trend continues to favour the bulls. The immediate range for Nifty is expected between 23,800 and 24,100. A decisive breakout above 24,000–24,100 could pave the way for a move towards 24,500 in the coming sessions,” says Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited.

Index formed a doji candlestick pattern which mostly remained contained inside previous session price range signaling consolidation for the second session in a row amid stock specific action. Bank Nifty has seen a strong rally of 4800 points in the just 10 sessions, hence some consolidation cannot be ruled out in the coming sessions as we are witnessing in the last 2 sessions which is likely to extend.

We expect the index to maintain overall positive bias and head towards 58,300 levels in the coming sessions being the measuring implication of the last four-week range breakout (52,700-55,500). Index sustaining above 55,500-56,000, will keep the overall bias positive and any dips should be viewed as buying opportunities. Only a decisive breach below the 55,500-support level would negate the positive outlook.

A sharp decline in crude oil prices on Wednesday, driven by expectations that Iranian oil exports could soon return to global markets, boosted hopes of lower inflation and pushed bond yields lower. Meanwhile, equities and currency markets remained relatively subdued as investors awaited the first Federal Reserve policy meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Brent crude slipped below the $80-a-barrel mark, touching its lowest level since the early stages of the US-Iran conflict that began in March.

A senior US official said Washington would lift sanctions on Iranian oil as part of the agreement aimed at ending the war, potentially paving the way for millions of additional barrels of crude to enter international markets.

Government bond yields in the United States eased, with Asian debt markets following suit. Japan's 10-year bond yield declined 1.5 basis points to 2.63%, while Australia's equivalent yield fell nearly 5 basis points to 4.787%.

Kim Fustier, senior oil and gas analyst at HSBC told Reuters that the markets appeared to be assigning a relatively high probability to a full restoration of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. However, HSBC expects the process to take until the end of September.

“Indian equities are expected to maintain their gradual positive momentum, supported by improving geopolitical developments, a revival in foreign institutional participation and a further fall in crude oil prices. Progress towards a potential US-Iran peace agreement, reportedly scheduled for signing in Switzerland on Friday, along with expectations of the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has significantly improved global sentiment. Brent crude price have declined to around USD 81.4 per barrel (-2.4%), while the rupee has appreciated 0.4 paise to ₹94.3 per US dollar, helping ease concerns around inflation and external sector stability.

Further supporting sentiment, Foreign Institutional Investors reversed their recent selling trend and turned net buyers, with net equity purchases of nearly ₹200 crore. Domestic markets extended their gains on Tuesday, with the Nifty 50 closing at 23,989, up 0.57%. Broader markets also participated in the up-move, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices advancing 0.4% each and a sharp 6.9% decline in India VIX, indicating reduced market volatility. Sectorally, Realty, Information Technology, Media, Consumer Durables and FMCG emerged as the top-performing sectors, while Metals underperformed, declining 1.5%.

Additionally, fertilizer stocks rallied on expectations that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will improve the availability of key fertilizer inputs from the Gulf region and ease logistics costs. Lower natural gas prices and smoother supply chains could help reduce input costs and support sector profitability. Further, foreign investors infused nearly ₹16,000 crore into Indian debt markets during June, marking the strongest monthly inflow in the last 16 months. The sustained interest reflects improving investor confidence following recent RBI liquidity measures and the government's tax exemptions for foreign portfolio investors investing in government securities,” says Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Although the US-Iran agreement is scheduled to be signed on Friday, only limited details have been made public so far. The three-month disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly reduced oil inventories, with US crude stockpiles falling to their lowest level since 1983.

On Wall Street, investors pared exposure to heavily owned technology and semiconductor stocks overnight, leading the Nasdaq to fall 1.15%. At the same time, gains in financial and industrial shares helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average reach another record high.

Asian equity futures were modestly positive, though markets with significant semiconductor exposure, including Taiwan and South Korea, edged lower. MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan declined around 0.3%.

Japan's Nikkei advanced 0.4%, while benchmark indices in Hong Kong and Shanghai traded largely unchanged.

Market participants are closely watching how Kevin Warsh navigates the competing pressures of a dovish administration and investor expectations that interest rates could still rise later this year. The uncertainty has kept the US dollar largely range-bound.

The euro posted only modest gains this week, hovering near $1.16. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen failed to strengthen despite the Bank of Japan's widely anticipated rate increase on Tuesday, although concerns about potential official intervention helped limit further weakness, leaving the currency near 160.3 per US dollar.

Index formed a bullish candlestick pattern which remained contained inside previous session price range signaling consolidation around the 24,000 levels amid stock specific action.

Nifty bias remains positive and is currently placed around the upper band of the last two months falling channel which also coincides with the previous swing high of 26th May placed around the range of 24,050-24,100.

Going ahead, a move above 24,100 will infuse further momentum and open upside towards 24,500 levels in the coming weeks. Failure to do so will lead to some consolidation in the range of 23,600-24,100 in the coming sessions.

We believe the overall structure is positive and any dips should be used to accumulate quality stocks in a staggered manner. We expect the index to eventually breakout above the 24,100 levels and gradually head towards 24,500-24,600 levels. Key short-term support is revised higher towards 23,500-23,600 levels being the confluence of the 20 days EMA and the recent breakout area.