I was asked recently about appraisals and my opinion recently is about today’s re sell values… We seen three times in the last few decades how comparable sales move wildly and not really comparable anymore. So I’ve been using market rentals and then backdooring the cap rates by using a weighted relative strength model of rents in geographic areas. When making an evaluation of property value, it’s about what could I resell the property in the event of foreclosure or what could I earn in cash in cash valuation . The “C”’s of lending come more into play now than some artificial intelligence model that I plug in my gpt. Although I’ve only seen potential fraud twice in the last few months, it still begs to underwrite with that in mind when making a buying decision on the notes we purchase or fund. Can we make common sense more common again ? “It is not only the return on your money, but the return of your money, that is of first importance.” -Will Rogers
Fraud in private lending is on the rise again, and my radar is up. I've recently noted trends in the industry that indicate patterns looking a lot like what surfaced in 2006–2007; false transactions, inflated comps, and appraisers pushing values beyond reality. But does this mean that the housing market will crash? Here's what I'm seeing. The most common trend right now is LLC-to-LLC transfers - false sales designed to make a property look more valuable than it really is. In some cases, borrowers are creating their own comps to justify inflated valuations. I'm also seeing isolated appraisal manipulation, where individual appraisers appear to be part of the scheme. An appraisal is meant to determine the fair market value of the home, but these appraisers are purposefully overvaluing properties. Fannie and Freddie are recognizing this fraud and excluding certain appraisers, but we must continue to do our diligence. This kind of activity tends to surface when prices stop climbing and transaction volume slows, which is exactly what we’re experiencing today. At Asset Based Lending, we’re taking a disciplined approach to fraud mitigation, tightening detection technology, verifying ownership transfers, and being extra cautious in markets where prices are softening. Whether it’s a rental or fix & flip, the same rule applies: when the market shifts, integrity matters more than ever. As leaders in private lending, it's important for us to be our firm's first line of defense. I'll be continuing to monitor the level of fraud in the private lending space and share any additional insights with you.