Where's the (sustainable) beef?

The world is going to eat a lot more meat… and we need to figure out how to produce it in a sustainable manner.

Last year an article in the Economist caught my eye “Jobless Cambodians are catching rats to feed Vietnamese city dwellers”. It featured a Cambodian farmer who “no longer earns enough from tilling his fields because rice is too cheap” and had “exchanged his plough for rat-traps”. Leaving aside your personal taste - or not - for rats, this story encapsulated the fact that the world is awash in cheap carbohydrates, but there is an ever-increasing demand for (animal) protein.

I have written previously about the incorrect Malthusian handwringing I often hear from entrepreneurs (usually new to agriculture) in the agtech space regarding population growth, etc. Fritz Haber, Norman Borlaug, and Yuan Longping led the way in proving Thomas Malthus wrong. Their efforts in feeding the world are being continued by researchers like Maria Andrade, Leena Tripathi and many more. We are not short of food. The reality is that we already produce more food than we need – around 2,800 Calories per human per day, when the average adult human needs between 2,000 to 2,500 Calories per day. That mass balance alone is one of the principal reasons we have food waste and obesity. As the article about the Cambodian rat-catchers highlights, that food is cheap… often too cheap for farmers to make a living.

Yuan Longping (hybrid rice), Fritz Haber (synthetic N fertilizer) and a young Norman Borlaug (before he wrestled with world hunger). Photos: Nature & Wiki commons.

This is not to deny hunger still exists in many parts of the world. It does, but the reasons for that include inequitable distribution, inefficient or broken supply chains and political failure. Just thirty years ago, 1 in 4 people were undernourished. That figure is now less than 1 in 10. There has been an uptick in hunger due to the impact of COVID-19 on our food systems, and with the Russian invasion of Ukraine we are now facing another threat to world food supply. However, there is a long-term trend of declining hunger even as population increases.

Along with advances in crop science, a significant driver of this has been increasing prosperity in China and other developing countries. Economic growth, I warrant, is more impactful for our global food system than population growth. As income rises, people opt to change their diet. Fat and protein consumption increases as people can afford to consume more than just a staple grain (or the humble “spud” in my home country). The bowl of rice gets pushed aside by the bucket of fried chicken. What this means is the world demands more meat. There is a clear correlation between meat consumption and GDP (see chart below from Our World in Data). Food is inseparable from culture and that is reflected in some outliers. Most notable, of course, is India with a long culture of vegetarianism and social taboos against the consumption of certain animals. Countries with high levels of fish consumption (like Norway and Japan) lie to one side of the trend line. Anyone who has eaten in a churrascaria or parilla can see why Brazil and Argentina lie to the other.

What is clear, is that as we (hopefully) continue to see global economic growth and more people lifted out of poverty, there will be increased demand for meat. We can argue as to whether that should be the case, and many are making efforts to curb excessive meat consumption in rich countries, but as Peter Drucker’s quote goes “culture eats strategy for breakfast” and food culture is something people are strongly attached to. So, we are looking at a future where there is going to be increasing demand for meat. Where is it going to come from? Importantly, how is it going to be produced? Two of the main themes which livestock producers in the 21st century have to deal with are animal welfare and climate change.

We live in an increasingly urban society (68% of the global population will live in cities by 2050) with people ever further removed from farming and the source of their food. No longer is the average person familiar with the once live animal that is now dead on their plate. Many meat eaters (shamefully in my opinion) don’t want to consider the animal that died to put that hamburger or bacon on their plate. Nowadays, the only interactions many people have with animals is with their pet dog or cat and they struggle with the whole idea of livestock agriculture. There is a cohort of consumers though, who are increasingly curious about how the meat they are eating was raised. The Portlandia spoof about “Colin the Chicken” is not that far from the reality in trendy farm-to-table restaurants today. (In the comic skit, two woke meat eaters in a restaurant ask the waitress detailed questions about the welfare of the chicken they are about to consume). I fully anticipate this kind of concern going mainstream. Witness the storm that erupted over the Fair Oaks Farm videos released by an animal rights group in 2019. So, major challenges ahead of livestock producers include how to ensure a high level of animal welfare and how to communicate that to consumers.

Meat consumption has been singled out by pressure groups (often those with an animal welfare or vegan agendas) as a major contributor to global warming. We've been treated to (inaccurate) adverts about cow farts but it is undeniable that livestock agriculture currently contributes to green-house gas emissions, whether due to enteric methane (via burps) or the carbon footprint of fodder crops (combined total estimated to be 7.1 GT CO2eq/yr or 14.5% of global emissions in this 2013 UN FAO report). However, the truth is, of course, much more nuanced than soundbites would have us believe. Livestock agriculture can play a pivotal role in sustainable and regenerative agricultural practices. In particular, I would highlight the potential for well-managed pastoral agriculture on perennial grasslands or pastures. Soil is a precious resource but one that has been readily squandered over the last 150 years in the USA. (For those interested in learning how dire the situation is I recommend Dr. Jo Handelsman’s recent book, A World Without Soil). Livestock agriculture can play a role in rebuilding soil AND sequestering carbon. A recently published paper in PNAS compares different types of agriculture over three decades and concluded that “In addition to reducing erosion and nutrient loss, increasing infiltration and water storage, and enhancing biodiversity, well-managed grazed perennial grasslands have the potential to build persistent soil C in Mollisols making them a critical part of climate-smart agriculture.” The accumulated soil carbon in the perennial grassland was 18% to 29% higher than all the annual cropping systems after 29 years. Done right, rotational grazing can re-build our soils and prevent erosion but also become a carbon sink.

So, while the Bay Area technophiles and Hollywood glitterati get excited about cellular meat, real innovation is needed in livestock agriculture. People are going to keep eating meat – and a great deal more than in the past. We need to see more technologies, business models and start-ups addressing how to make animal husbandry more sustainable and how to continuously improve animal welfare. Can technology help price-in some of the negative externalities of meat production as well as quantify positive ones? (The wealthy countries who consume most of the meat should pay for the full costs of it too). The best performers in animal welfare need tools to communicate with and educate their consumers. There are carbon sequestration opportunities for ranchers that need to be measured and verified. Alongside more sustainable meat, we also need to see increased production of plant-based and alternative proteins as they can fill some of the increased appetite for protein – but are not a panacea. Anyone eating meat also needs to recognize the ethical choices they are making when they eat an animal.

Meat is not going away. We need to figure out better ways to produce it.

Photo by Etienne Girardet on Unsplash